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Discount rate assumptions and key local issues

The table below shows IAS19 discount rate assumption ranges at 31 December 2025 that we typically expect in major DB pension markets globally, as well as some of the key pension accounting issues in those countries.

Country

Indicative IAS19 discount rate range

Key issues in local market

Short
duration
(< 10
years)

Medium
duration
(10-15
years)

Long
duration
(> 15
years)

Eurozone

2.4% – 4.1%

3.6% – 4.3%

4.0% – 4.5%

Netherlands: The new pension legislation (Wet Toekomst Pensioenen) could potentially impact balance sheet and P&L.

UK

4.9% – 5.5%

5.4% – 5.8%

5.6% – 5.9%

The Virgin Media legal case may require further investigation and potential for additional disclosures. However, there is draft legislation pending which is intended to mitigate the impact.
New CMI 2024 mortality projection model was released in June 2025 revealing an increase in life expectancies compared to CMI 2023. Corporates that adopt CMI 2024 will see increase in their liabilities.

USA

5.3% – 5.5%

5.3% – 5.5%

5.5% – 5.7%

Pension risk transfer activity remained steady in 2025 with plan sponsors continuing to monitor both the evolving interest rate environment and market conditions as they consider de-risking opportunities.

Canada

4.2% – 4.6%

4.6% – 5.0%

5.0% – 5.2%

No notable key issues currently in Canada.

Mexico

9.2% – 9.4%

9.6% – 9.7%

9.7% – 9.8%

No notable key issues currently in Mexico.

Norway

4.2% – 4.4%

4.1% – 4.4%

3.8% – 4.1%

No notable key issues currently in Norway.

China

1.3% – 1.8%

1.9% – 2.2%

2.3% – 2.7%

No notable key issues currently in China.

India

5.5% – 6.7%

6.8% – 7.2%

7.2% – 7.6%

No notable key issues currently in India.

Indonesia

5.0% – 6.2%

6.3% – 6.6%

6.6% – 7.0%

No notable key issues currently in Indonesia.

Malaysia

3.5% – 3.9%

4.0% – 4.2%

4.3% – 5.2%

No notable key issues currently in Malaysia.

Singapore

1.5% – 2.1%

2.2%

2.2% – 2.4%

No notable key issues currently in Singapore.

Thailand

1.1% – 1.6%

1.7% – 2.1%

2.2% – 2.7%

No notable key issues currently in Thailand.

 

If you would like to discuss the above in further detail or would like insights for any other countries, please get in touch.

Movement in corporate bond yields

The chart below shows the change in the yields on AA-rated Sterling, US Dollar and Euro denominated corporate bonds over the year to 31 December 2025.

Since 31 December 2024, corporate bond yields in the US remained broadly unchanged however, there has been a c. 0.1% increase in corporate bond yields in the UK and a c. 0.6% increase in corporate bond yields in the Eurozone. Multinationals are likely to see a decrease in DB liability values in the UK and Eurozone compared to the position at 31 December 2024.    

Growth asset performance

The chart below shows the performance of equity markets in the UK, US, Europe and Japan over the year to 31 December 2025.

Equity markets experienced significant positive returns over the year to 31 December 2025 in the major economies. There was significant volatility in the first half of 2025 driven by trade concerns as the US raised tariff rates to levels not seen in recent history. However, developed markets rallied in the second half of the year due to positive implications of fiscal and monetary policies. By the end of 2025, equity markets across the globe displayed cumulative positive returns of c. 28% in Europe, c. 25% in the UK, c. 10% in the USA and c. 17% in Japan for the year. Corporates with funded DB plans with growth-oriented investment strategies are likely to have seen an increase in their asset values as at 31 December 2025 compared to the position at 31 December 2024.

Contacts

Isabel Coles

Head of International Consulting, MBWL International

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Elliot Colman

Global Benefits Consultant

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Contacts

Isabel Coles

Head of International Consulting, MBWL International

VIEW PROFILE

Elliot Colman

Global Benefits Consultant

VIEW PROFILE