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Key trends over Q1 2025

  • Movements in corporate bonds yields varied over the quarter to 31 March 2025 in the major economies. The UK, Eurozone, Indonesia, and China all saw increases in corporate bonds yields over the quarter. In contrast, corporate bonds yields marginally decreased in the USA, Canada and India.
  • Since the start of the year there has been a significant drop in performance in the US equity market which has been driven by the trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. Corporates with funded DB pension plans in the USA can expect a worsening in their net balance sheet position as at 31 March 2025 compared to 31 December 2024.

Discount rate assumptions and key local issues

The table below shows IAS 19 discount rate assumption ranges at 31 March 2025 that we typically expect in several key DB pension markets globally, as well as some of the key pension accounting issues in those countries.

If you would like to discuss the above in further detail or would like insights for any other countries, please get in touch.

Movement in corporate bond yields

The chart below shows the change in the yields on AA-rated Sterling, US Dollar and Euro denominated corporate bonds over the quarter to 31 March 2025.

Since 31 December 2024, there has been a c. 0.3% increase in corporate bonds yields in the UK and the Eurozone. However, corporate bonds yields have marginally decreased in the US over the last quarter. Multinationals are likely to see a reduction in DB liability values in the UK and the Eurozone but an increase in DB liability values in the USA compared to the position at 31 December 2024.     

Growth asset performance

The chart below shows the performance of equity markets in the UK, US, Europe and Japan over the quarter to 31 March 2025.

Equity markets in the UK and Europe performed positively over the quarter to 31 March 2025, experiencing a 5% and 8% return, respectively.

However, the US equity market experienced significant volatility over the quarter. After an initial positive return in the first two months of the year, there has been a very significant drop in performance driven by geopolitical issues including trade policies and international relations, which has created uncertainty and affected investor sentiment. Funded DB plans in the USA with growth-oriented investment strategies are likely to have seen a drop in their asset values as at 31 March 2025 compared to the position at 31 December 2024.

Contacts

Isabel Coles

Head of International Consulting, MBWL International

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Elliot Colman

Global Benefits Consultant

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Contacts

Isabel Coles

Head of International Consulting, MBWL International

VIEW PROFILE

Elliot Colman

Global Benefits Consultant

VIEW PROFILE